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Nova rodada de cessar-fogo e negociações de reféns fracassa os bets Doha

A nother round of ceasefire and hostage talks, this time 💹 in Doha, has ended in disappointment. This is in large part because Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is unlikely to 💹 accept any agreement that Hamas could present as a victory – and has handcuffed the Israeli mediators with conditions that 💹 appear impossible for Hamas to accept.

A batalha pela dignidade nacional e honra

Huge quantities of explosives have been dropped on Gaza 💹 by Israel since 7 October because of the humiliation felt by all Israelis, and especially Israel's leaders and military. So 💹 much of this war over more than 10 months has been fought on both sides as a war of revenge. 💹 Nonetheless, it also has major strategic consequences for Israel, Hamas, the Palestinian people, the nations of the region, and the 💹 world's major powers – above all the United States.

As condições israelenses para um acordo

Hamas will view and present any agreement 💹 with Israel that ends the war in Gaza, leads to the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the strip, and releases 💹 Palestinian prisoners, as a victory and Israeli surrender. Therefore Israeli negotiators will not agree to a full withdrawal, and are 💹 demanding long-term Israeli military presence along the Gaza-Egypt border, and a security mechanism that would ensure that armed Hamas and 💹 other military personnel cannot move from the south of Gaza to the north. In addition, Netanyahu is demanding a veto 💹 on the Palestinian prisoners who would be released in the deal, and that those serving life sentences would be deported 💹 outside Palestine for life. These additional conditions are unacceptable to Hamas.

O risco de mais mortes

It is also difficult to imagine 💹 that Netanyahu will make any deal with Hamas before the killing of the main Hamas leaders in Gaza, primarily Yahya 💹 Sinwar. When the Israeli military finds Sinwar and kills him, there are likely to be Israeli hostages surrounding him and 💹 the bunker may be booby-trapped with explosives. There is likely to be a fight to the death that may result 💹 in Israeli soldiers and hostages being killed as well as the Hamas leaders and their soldiers. There is also a 💹 risk that Hamas militants will kill more hostages when their leader is killed.

A ética israelense os bets questão

For most of the 💹 people of Israel, there is no victory without the return of the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza. Yet these negotiations 💹 make clear that Netanyahu has put his impossible goal of total victory before their safe return. Many of them may 💹 no longer be alive, whether killed by Hamas or Israeli bombs. There is a possibility that some of those bodies 💹 may never be found and returned. Historically, Israel's ethos has been centred on the principle that no one is left 💹 behind. The world was stunned in 2011 when Israel released 1,027 Palestinian prisoners (of whom more than 300 were serving 💹 life terms for violent attacks) in exchange for just one Israeli soldier. At the time, about 80% of Israelis supported 💹 that deal and 26 members of Netanyahu's government voted in favour of it, with only three ministers in opposition. That 💹 ethos seems now to be broken. No one can accuse Netanyahu of not wanting to bring the hostages home, but 💹 it seems quite clear that this is not his first priority. Most Israeli pundits believe that Netanyahu's "total victory" is 💹 more about extending the war for as long as possible in order to remain in power. The prime minister is 💹 slowly rising in the polls as his base, which in good part had deserted him after the Hamas attack, begins 💹 to return.

O papel dos mediadores

The chances of successful Israeli-Hamas negotiations ride on the amount of leverage mediators are willing to 💹 apply to both sides as fresh talks resume next week. The BR has significant power over Israel, both in the 💹 political cover that the BR provides Israel in the UN and in the ability to stop the flow of bombs 💹 to Israel. The BR could say that it would have Israel's back if it were attacked by Iran or by 💹 Hezbollah, but it would no longer provide bombs for Israel to drop on Gaza. Egypt and Qatar each have significant 💹 leverage over Hamas: parts of the Hamas leadership are based in Doha, while the Rafah crossing has acted as a 💹 lifeline to the Gaza Strip. There are reported to be 160,000 Palestinians who escaped the horrors of the war in 💹 Gaza and who are overstaying their visas in Egypt. This is another point of leverage on Hamas, or on the 💹 Palestinian people.

O fim da guerra e o caminho para a paz

At this point, more than 10 months into the war 💹 with more than 40,000 people killed in Gaza and more than 1,600 Israelis killed, this war must come to an 💹 end. There is no military solution to this conflict and there has never been one. There must be a new 💹 path to a negotiated end of the larger conflict, but it begins by ending this war, Israel withdrawing from Gaza, 💹 Israeli hostages coming home and the establishment of a secure border between Gaza and Egypt. That would pave the way 💹 for the creation of a responsible and legitimate non-Hamas government in Gaza, an Arab-led international force in Gaza for a 💹 limited period of time, new elections in Palestine, new elections in Israel and then a regional peace process that will 💹 bring about the two-state solution, with an end to the Israeli occupation, a free democratic Palestine, and freedom, peace and 💹 security for all.